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12/25/2006 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwyane Wade had a spectacular Christmas afternoon, scoring 40 points, dishing out 11 assists and tying a career-high with four blocked shots, as the Heat rolled to a 101-85 over the Los Angeles Lakers.
Wade, who also had four steals, went 12-of-20 from the field and missed just one of his 16 free throws, as Miami won for the fourth time in five games. Jason Kapono added 11 points and Dorell Wright 10 for the Heat, who dominated on the boards by a 45-31 count.
It was the first time this season the Heat have beat a team with a winning record (1-9).
Kobe Bryant was limited to 16 points for the Lakers, who had a two-game winning streak broken. It was his lowest point total since his second game of the season when he had 15 November 5 at Seattle. He went 4-of-17 from the floor and missed all four of his shots beyond the arc.
Ronny Turiaf tallied 13 points and seven rebounds, while Luke Walton scored 10 for Los Angeles, which shot 39.2 percent from the field. That included a 5-of-23 clip from three-point range.
Even though a pair of legendary NBA coaches faced each other in the Lakers' Phil Jackson and Miami's Pat Riley, the game was without some of its luster due to injuries to Lakers forward Lamar Odom and Heat center Shaquille O'Neal,
Jason Williams knocked down a three-pointer in the opening minute of the game and the Heat were on top the rest of the way, progressing to their fourth consecutive home win.
Wright jammed and had a jumper during a 6-0 Heat run later in the first, as Miami widened its lead to 17-8. Antoine Walker's layup ended the first period with the Heat ahead 30-16.
Bryant and the Lakers faced an uphill battle for the final 36 minutes, and the Lakers couldn't come up with big defensive stops and were hampered by poor shooting. Turiaf's dunk had LA within 41-35 with 3:14 remaining in the half and Vladimir Radmanovic's layup cut it to a five-point deficit before James Posey's bucket ended the second quarter with the Heat up 47-40.
Walton's bank shot brought the Lakers within 53-48, but Miami came right back with Wade opening some breathing room. His driving jam widened the margin to 64-52 with 5:08 left in the third. Wade had 18 points in the quarter, and Miami held a commanding 74-64 lead going into the fourth.
The lead didn't dip under eight in the final period. A 13-4 spurt in the closing minutes sealed the win. Kapono banged in a trio of threes during the stretch for a 101-82 margin with just over a minute left.
Game Notes
The Heat have won the last three Christmas Day games against the Lakers and have won four of the last five in the series...Alonzo Mourning had nine points, eight rebounds and three blocks before fouling out for Miami...Odom and O'Neal are sidelined with knee injuries.
<< UCLA remains on top of poll; Clemson and Tennessee join Top 25
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the fifth consecutive week, UCLA
remained atop the Associated Press college basketball poll.
The Bruins (11-0) crushed Michigan, 92-55, and also dismantled Sam Houston
State this past week
<< ACC represents top of women's poll as Oklahoma falls
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Maryland, North Carolina, and now Duke, hold
the top three spots in the latest Associated Press women's college basketball
poll as Oklahoma tumbled out of the third spot and all the way down to eight.
With
<< Heat, Lakers meet for third straight year on Christmas Day
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Lakers and the defending world champion
Miami Heat hook up for the third straight year on Christmas Day, as the teams
battle in the only NBA contest of the day at AmericanAirlines Arena.
On Christmas Day in
<< Remaining Free Agents List
NEW YORK (AP) -The 83 remaining free agents:AMERICAN LEAGUEBALTIMORE (4) - Bruce Chen, lhp; Russ Ortiz, rhp; Fernando Tatis, 3b; Chris Widger, c.BOSTON (4) - Keith Foulke, rhp; Gabe Kapler, of; Mark Loretta, 3b; Trot Nixon, of.CHICAGO (3) - Sandy Al
Eagles run over Cowboys to clinch playoff berth >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Garcia completed 15-of-23 passes for 238
yards and Brian Westbrook led a clock-controlling ground game with 122 rushing
yards, as the Philadelphia Eagles clinched a playoff berth and gained the NFC
East l
Jets inch closer to playoffs by edging Dolphins >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leon Washington's 64-yard jaunt on a screen pass
set up Mike Nugent's winning field goal with 10 seconds remaining, as the New
York Jets moved closer to the playoffs with a 13-10 win over the Miami
Dolphin
Packers/Bears selected for Sunday night; wild chase for playoffs >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL has moved this coming Sunday night's
game between Green Bay and the Chicago Bears to 8:15 p.m. (et) as part of the
flexible scheduling system.
There were other games moved back to later in the afte
Rockets stop off in Indiana >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Rockets hit the road this evening to take on
the Indiana Pacers at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Houston will visit Indiana and New Jersey on its brief trip and is 8-8 as the
visitor this season. The Rockets have lost t
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship
(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.
One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.
MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.
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