FBS Football: Agent-Gate 2010

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Throwing the word "Gate" behind subject matter gives the impression of impropriety, and in turn draws a line in the sand for those trying to decide what to make of an issue.

At SEC Football Media Day earlier this month, Alabama head coach Nick Saban described unscrupulous sports agents as "pimps." While I'm sure there are some people out there, especially among the collegiate coaching ranks, that believe that comparison gives pimps a bad name, is Saban really serious? I mean, in watching his press conference it was hard not to think that Ashton Kutcher was going to walk out at some point and let us all know we were being punked.

Saban's comments may have been a knee-jerk reaction to the recent discovery that one of his top players, defensive end Marcel Dareus, is under investigation by the NCAA for attending a party in South Beach funded by an NFL agent. More absurd and transparent comments would come later, when Saban suggested that Alabama may be best served to sever its ties with the NFL.

Are you kidding me?

Cutting ties with the NFL for Alabama would be tantamount to program suicide. Saban himself would soon be looking for another job if he wasn't able to go into recruits' living rooms and tout the successful transition from the University of Alabama football program to the NFL.

For a lot of college recruits, the NFL carrot determines where they will go to school. For many, such a career is all that matters. Escaping their current situation and becoming a savior to their family and friends is the only incentive needed to make a decision, and the promise of an NFL salary certainly tips the scales.

What sports agents are doing is no different than what collegiate coaches do in courting high school kids. The only real difference is that the NCAA actively investigates the first, while all but turning a blind eye to the below-board things that happen with the latter.

The programs themselves often look the other way in regard to their own boosters, who lavish gifts on the truly talented players, yet the same schools are crying foul when sports agents do the very same thing?

The argument against such activity is that the student-athlete receives a first-class education at little to no cost, and that should be sufficient reward. The reality, however, in the case of top football programs, is that the student-athlete generates far more revenue for the schools than benefits received, and what the school gets out of the relationship monetarily far outweighs what the player attains.

The task of bridging that gap has fallen on the sports agent. In all professions there are good and bad practitioners. While some agents will go to any extreme to get their hooks into a potential client and exploit their current situations, there are plenty of others that follow the rules to the letter of the law.

College football at the highest level, is a money-making machine. Everyone in the process seems to get a piece of the pie, from gamblers to universities to the coaches they employ. However, the NCAA says that the only ones "not allowed" to get in on the action are the young men who actually play the game.

We can't have it both ways. If college football at the FBS level is a business, why are we outraged that student-athletes are starting to make business decisions?

South Carolina, Georgia and Florida have joined the group of SEC programs under NCAA scrutiny for what it deems to be improper contact with agents.

In the wake of all the press given to Reggie Bush's transgressions at USC, expect similar stories across the nation to pop up as the 2010 season approaches and throughout the year.

This particular problem has always been here, and until the NCAA lessens the restrictions on the student-athlete, Agent-Gate isn't going away anytime soon.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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