Action Jackson: Rams top Redskins in OT

Football Betting Lines

12/24/2006 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steven Jackson ran 21 yards to the end zone with 8:27 left in overtime, as the St. Louis Rams kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 37-31 victory over the Washington Redskins.

After both teams had punted, Marc Bulger hooked up with Torry Holt for five yards, Jackson carried twice for five yards, and Stephen Davis had an eight- yard run. Jackson then broke free down the middle for the 21-yard game-winning touchdown.

Bulger completed 25-of-38 passes for 388 yards and four touchdowns for the Rams (7-8), who won their second straight. Isaac Bruce had a season-high 148 receiving yards and now has 13,310 receiving yards to pass Andre Reed (13,198) for seventh all-time. Jackson rushed for 150 yards on 33 carries, and also had six receptions for 102 yards, passing Marshall Faulk (87) for the franchise record for receptions by a running back in a single season with 88.

Jason Campbell completed 13-of-26 passes for 160 yards and a score for the Redskins (5-10), who are one of the few NFL teams that have been officially eliminated from postseason contention. Ladell Betts rushed for 129 yards on 29 carries with two scores, and tied Rob Goode (1951) for most consecutive games with at least 100 yards rushing in franchise history. This was his fifth straight game at the century mark, and first 1,000-yard rushing season. Chris Cooley caught seven passes for 77 yards and a score.

After a pair of false starts, the Rams had to settle for a 21-yard field goal by Jeff Wilkins to take a three-point lead with just under eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

After Washington punted, Jackson fumbled and Lemar Marshall recovered for the Redskins, who tied the score at 31 with a 52-yard Shaun Suisham field goal.

After St. Louis had punted, Betts broke free downfield but Oshiomogho Atogwe punched the ball loose and the Rams recovered it at the two-minute mark. Out of the shotgun, Bulger then found Kevin Curtis for 18 yards, Holt for 14 yards, and Jackson for 24 yards to set up a 41-yard field-goal Wilkins attempt that hooked left, as the game went into overtime.

Washington got on the board on its first drive courtesy of T.J. Duckett, who rushed for 11 yards and then scored from five yards out for an early 7-0 lead with 6:41 remaining in the opening quarter.

The Rams responded right away in the second quarter. Bruce got his 80th career reception on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Bulger to cap an eight-play, 85-yard drive. Dominique Byrd then notched his first NFL reception on a 27- yard touchdown pass from Bulger with 9:49 remaining.

Washington capitalized on a blocked punt by Vernon Fox, as Betts needed just two plays to score from eight yards out for a 14-14 tie with 6:14 left. Cooley then caught a nine-yard touchdown pass from Campbell with 21 seconds left for a 21-14 Skins lead at halftime.

Betts kept it going in the second half, scoring on a seven-yard run with 8:49 remaining to cap an 11-play, 72-yard drive.

St. Louis answered when Jackson broke free for a 64-yard touchdown pass to cap a five-play, 82-yard drive with 6:30 remaining. Davis then caught his first touchdown pass as a Ram on a 10-yard shuffle pass to tie the score, 28-28, with 1:49 left in the third.

Game Notes

Washington cornerback Shawn Springs broke a shoulder blade in the first quarter...Bulger, Jackson and wide receiver Torry Holt were selected to the 2006 NFC Pro Bowl roster earlier this week...The Redskins hold a 20-7-1 lead in their all-time series with the Rams, but had a three-game winning streak snapped...Washington was a 24-9 road winner when the teams last matched up, in Week 13 of last season. The Rams' previous win in the series was a 23-20 road victory in 1997, and their most recent home victory against Washington came by a 10-6 count for the then-Los Angeles Rams in 1993...The Rams are 1-4 against the Redskins in St. Louis all-time. Washington had a seven-game winning streak in the city of St. Louis snapped since last losing there, to the Cardinals, in 1984.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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